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Majority of Retail Investors Predict Election Victory for Obama But Wary of Market Effect, According to TradeKing Survey

Bullishness Up for Q1 But Uncertainty Still Prevails

Feb 7, 2012

FT. LAUDERDALE, FL—February 7, 2012 – According to a recent online survey of more than 280 independent retail investors, 47 percent said they expect President Obama to be re-elected in November 2012, but nearly as many (44 percent) said his re-election would make them more bearish on the market.  

Overall bullishness continued to rise this quarter, up to 41 percent from 33 percent in October, but still below the 51 percent of a year ago. The majority of those surveyed remain neutral on the market. 

The in-house survey was conducted January 29-February 3, 2012 by online broker TradeKing ( via email to 4,000+ TradeKing clients, with an estimated 95 percent confidence level.

Key Highlights from the Survey 

The Obama Factor

·       Forty-seven percent of investors surveyed said they believed President Obama would be re-elected in November, compared with 33 percent who believed he would be defeated, and 20 percent who were “unsure.”

·       Of those surveyed, 44 percent said President Obama’s re-election would make them more bearish, while 42 said it would have no impact on their market sentiment. Only 14 percent said his re-election would make them more bullish on the market.

Overall Market Sentiment & Trading Strategy

·       While bullishness is up this quarter, the majority of investors (47 percent) still characterized their market outlook as “neutral or not sure.” 

·       Forty-one percent of investors described themselves as either “bullish” or “very bullish” over the next three months, up from 33 percent in October. 

·       Twelve percent of investors described themselves as “bearish” or “very bearish,” down sharply from the 22 percent in October and 41 percent in August.

·       Most investors, 45 percent, reported using a combination of fundamental analysis (using data that indicates a company’s current financial health, such as balance sheet, prospect for future earnings, management, etc.) and technical analysis (using market data to try and predict future market trends, such as price charts and volume numbers) to make trading decisions, while 24 percent said they primarily use fundamental analysis and 12 percent rely on technical analysis. Nineteen percent use neither.

International Economic Markets Supersede Quarterly Earning and U.S. Unemployment Claims as Top Trade Trigger; Investors Still Long on Energy and Technology, Short on Finance and Transportation/Travel 

·       Among investors surveyed, 41 percent ranked International Economic Markets as their top trade trigger to watch for the next three months. Quarterly earnings followed at 39 percent and U.S. consumer spending at 36.5 percent.  

·       When asked to pick the favored sectors for the next three months from a “long” position, respondents once again picked energy and technology as their favorite sectors at 54 and 44 percent, respectively. This quarter, respondents picked the finance and transportation/travel sectors as having the most potential from a “short” position.                                                              

About TradeKing

TradeKing ( is a nationally licensed online stock and options broker offering simple, low cost online trading fees ($4.95 per trade plus $.65 per option contract, $8.95 per trade plus $.15 per options contract for nine or more contracts).1 A pioneer in integrating new financial social media as part of its innovative online equities, options trading and fixed-income trading platform, TradeKing has received multiple discount broker awards from top industry sources and was rated best in customer service by SmartMoney2 Magazine, ahead of OptionsXpress, Scottrade, Fidelity, and TD Ameritrade. (June 2011 SmartMoney Broker Survey).   

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