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TradeKing Survey: Online Investors Maintain Prediction of Obama Victory in November but Bearish Sentiment Grows

International Economic Markets Ranks #1 in Investor Concerns, Healthcare and Energy Top List of Current Favorite Sectors

Jul 12, 2012

FORT LAUDERDALE, FL -- July 12, 2012 -- Consistent with results from January, most independent online investors believe President Obama will retain the White House in November while bearish sentiment continues to rise, according to a recent online survey conducted by online broker TradeKing.

Among 170 investors surveyed, 49 percent said they expect President Obama to be re-elected in November 2012, up two points since January. But the majority (43 percent) also said his re-election would make them more bearish on the market, compared with only 17 percent who said it would make them more bullish.  

The survey also highlighted that overall bullishness continues to dip while bearishness has increased. While a strong 60 percent showing of investors in April predicted the S&P to be trading up by year’s end, only 46 percent of investors surveyed in July expect positive year over year market growth.  

The in-house survey was conducted July 2-9, 2012 by online broker TradeKing ( via email to 4,000+ TradeKing clients, with an estimated 95 percent confidence level.

Key Highlights from the Survey 

Eyes on the November Election

  • Forty-nine percent of investors surveyed said they believed President Obama would be re-elected in November (up two points from January), compared with 29 percent who believed he would be defeated (down four points from January), and 22 percent who were “unsure” (up two points from January).
  • Of those surveyed, 43 percent said President Obama’s re-election would make them more bearish (down one point since January), while 39 percent said it would have no impact on their market sentiment (down three points since January). Only 17 percent said his re-election would make them more bullish on the market (up three points since January).

Overall Market Sentiment

  • Bullishness continues its trend downward: 20 percent of investors described themselves as “bullish” over the next three months, down from 36 percent in April and 41 percent in January.
  •  Twenty-eight percent of investors describe themselves as “bearish” or “very bearish,” up significantly from 15 percent in April and 12 percent in January.
  • Most investors, however, still find themselves somewhere in the middle with 51 percent describing their market outlook as “neutral” or “not sure.”
  • When asked where they anticipate the S&P to be trading by year-end, 46 percent said “up 5-10 percent,” representing a drop of 14 points since April. Thirty-one percent said the S&P would be trading “flat,” 19 percent said “down 5-10 percent,” and 4 percent said “down over 20 percent.”

International Economic Markets Return to Top of Investors’ Trading Trigger List Followed by Unemployment and Consumer Spending Concerns

  • Among investors surveyed, 45 percent ranked International Economic Markets as their top trade trigger to watch for the next three months. U.S. unemployment claims followed at 39 percent and consumer spending at 33 percent. 
  • When asked to pick the favored sectors for the next three months from a “long” position, for the first time in several quarters, respondents picked energy and healthcare, knocking technology out of the top-two spot. This quarter, respondents picked the finance and retail sectors as having the most potential from a “short” position.

About TradeKing

TradeKing ( is a nationally licensed online stock and options broker offering simple, low cost online trading fees.1 A pioneer in integrating new financial social media as part of its innovative online equities, options trading and fixed-income trading platform, TradeKing has received multiple discount broker awards from top industry sources and was rated best in customer service by SmartMoney2 Magazine for the third consecutive year. (June 2012 SmartMoney Broker Survey).    

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(1) TradeKing was ranked #1 in Customer Service in the SmartMoney June 2012 Broker Survey based on the following categories: Commissions and Fees, Mutual Funds & Investment Products, Banking Services, Trading Tools, Research, and Customer Service. SmartMoney is a registered trademark of SmartMoney, a joint publishing venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst Partnership. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparison, statistics, or other technical data, will be supplied upon request by calling 877-495-5464 or via email at


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